Matchday 25 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 7, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolfsburg 1–2 HSV: lucky or expected?
HSV beat Wolfsburg 2–1, but the goals call it even: HSV win 3 of 10, Wolfsburg 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolfsburg were expected to score 1.5 here and HSV 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfL Wolfsburg | 1 |
 Hamburger SV | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +51 HSV lucky · −51 Wolfsburg
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolfsburg win 4, 3 end level, HSV win 3.
- 1 WOB 2 HSV 1
- 2 WOB 3 HSV 2
- 3 WOB 3 HSV 1
- 4 WOB 3 HSV 0
- 5 WOB 1 HSV 1
- 6 WOB 1 HSV 1
- 7 WOB 3 HSV 3
- 8 WOB 1 HSV 4
- 9 WOB 1 HSV 2
- 10 WOB 1 HSV 2
The goals
Wolfsburg’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 22' | Christian Eriksen (Wolfsburg, penalty) | 1–0 | +23% Wolfsburg |
| 2. 33' | Luka Vuskovic (HSV, penalty) | 1–1 | +25% HSV |
| 3. 58' | Jean-Luc Dompé (HSV, penalty) | 1–2 | +33% HSV |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. HSV win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 25, 2025-26
- Bayern 4–1 Gladbach Mar 6, 2026 · replay 87% for Bayern
- Freiburg 3–3 Leverkusen Mar 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Leipzig 2–1 Augsburg Mar 7, 2026 · replay 69% for Leipzig
- Heidenheim 2–4 Hoffenheim Mar 7, 2026 · replay 68% for Hoffenheim
- Mainz 2–2 Stuttgart Mar 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Köln 1–2 Dortmund Mar 7, 2026 · replay 71% for Dortmund
- St. Pauli 0–0 Frankfurt Mar 8, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Union Berlin 1–4 Werder Mar 8, 2026 · replay 39% for Werder