luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 25 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · March 8, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Union Berlin 1–4 Werder: lucky or expected?

Werder beat Union Berlin 4–1, but the goals lean toward Union Berlin: 5 wins in 10 to Werder’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Union Berlin were expected to score 1.5 here and Werder 1.1.

Full time

Goals
Union Berlin 1
Werder Bremen 4

March 8, 2026

Luck index +61 Werder very lucky · −61 Union Berlin

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Union Berlin win 5, 3 end level, Werder win 2.

  1. 1 FCU 1 SVW 0
  2. 2 FCU 1 SVW 0
  3. 3 FCU 2 SVW 0
  4. 4 FCU 5 SVW 3
  5. 5 FCU 4 SVW 1
  6. 6 FCU 0 SVW 0
  7. 7 FCU 1 SVW 1
  8. 8 FCU 2 SVW 2
  9. 9 FCU 1 SVW 3
  10. 10 FCU 0 SVW 1

The goals

Union Berlin’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Union Berlin was ahead in it, below while Werder was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 18' Derrick Köhn (Union Berlin, penalty) 1–0 +22% Union Berlin
2. 31' Olivier Deman (Werder) 1–1 +24% Werder
3. 35' Jens Stage (Werder) 1–2 +27% Werder
4. 66' Marco Gruell (Werder) 1–3 +14% Werder
90+4' Patrice Covic (Werder) 1–4

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Werder win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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