Matchday 30 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Frankfurt 1–3 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat Frankfurt 3–1, but the goals call it even: Leipzig win 4 of 10, Frankfurt 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Frankfurt were expected to score 1.8 here and Leipzig 2.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 |
 RB Leipzig | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +47 Leipzig lucky · −47 Frankfurt
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Frankfurt win 4, 2 end level, Leipzig win 4.
- 1 SGE 2 RBL 1
- 2 SGE 1 RBL 0
- 3 SGE 2 RBL 0
- 4 SGE 4 RBL 1
- 5 SGE 3 RBL 3
- 6 SGE 1 RBL 1
- 7 SGE 1 RBL 4
- 8 SGE 1 RBL 3
- 9 SGE 0 RBL 1
- 10 SGE 1 RBL 2
The goals
Frankfurt’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 27' | Yan Diomande (Leipzig) | 0–1 | +26% Leipzig |
| 2. 34' | Hugo Larsson (Frankfurt) | 1–1 | +27% Frankfurt |
| 3. 70' | Antonio Nusa (Leipzig) | 1–2 | +38% Leipzig |
| 4. 81' | Conrad Harder (Leipzig) | 1–3 | +7% Leipzig |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2025-26
- St. Pauli 1–1 Köln Apr 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Union Berlin 1–2 Wolfsburg Apr 18, 2026 · replay 42% for Wolfsburg
- Hoffenheim 2–1 Dortmund Apr 18, 2026 · replay 45% for Hoffenheim
- Leverkusen 1–2 Augsburg Apr 18, 2026 · replay 30% for Augsburg
- Werder 3–1 HSV Apr 18, 2026 · replay 50% for Werder
- Freiburg 2–1 Heidenheim Apr 19, 2026 · replay 67% for Freiburg
- Bayern 4–2 Stuttgart Apr 19, 2026 · replay 74% for Bayern
- Gladbach 1–1 Mainz Apr 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws