Matchday 30 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Hoffenheim 2–1 Dortmund: lucky or expected?
Hoffenheim beat Dortmund 2–1, but the goals call it even: Hoffenheim win 3 of 10, Dortmund 5, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 1.5 here and Dortmund 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 TSG Hoffenheim | 2 |
 Borussia Dortmund | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +55 Hoffenheim lucky · −55 Dortmund
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 3, 2 end level, Dortmund win 5.
- 1 TSG 1 BVB 0
- 2 TSG 3 BVB 2
- 3 TSG 3 BVB 0
- 4 TSG 1 BVB 1
- 5 TSG 0 BVB 0
- 6 TSG 0 BVB 3
- 7 TSG 2 BVB 4
- 8 TSG 0 BVB 2
- 9 TSG 0 BVB 1
- 10 TSG 1 BVB 2
The goals
Hoffenheim’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 42' | Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim, penalty) | 1–0 | +27% Hoffenheim |
| 2. 87' | Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund) | 1–1 | +47% Dortmund |
| 90+8' | Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim, penalty) | 2–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hoffenheim win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 30, 2025-26
- St. Pauli 1–1 Köln Apr 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Union Berlin 1–2 Wolfsburg Apr 18, 2026 · replay 42% for Wolfsburg
- Leverkusen 1–2 Augsburg Apr 18, 2026 · replay 30% for Augsburg
- Werder 3–1 HSV Apr 18, 2026 · replay 50% for Werder
- Frankfurt 1–3 Leipzig Apr 18, 2026 · replay 53% for Leipzig
- Freiburg 2–1 Heidenheim Apr 19, 2026 · replay 67% for Freiburg
- Bayern 4–2 Stuttgart Apr 19, 2026 · replay 74% for Bayern
- Gladbach 1–1 Mainz Apr 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws