Matchday 32 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 2, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bayern 3–3 Heidenheim: lucky or expected?
Bayern and Heidenheim drew 3–3. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, Heidenheim 1, and 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bayern were expected to score 3.8 here and Heidenheim 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayern Munich | 3 |
 1. FC Heidenheim | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index −40 Bayern unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bayern win 8, 1 ends level, Heidenheim win 1.
- 1 FCB 2 FCH 1
- 2 FCB 3 FCH 1
- 3 FCB 3 FCH 1
- 4 FCB 3 FCH 0
- 5 FCB 5 FCH 2
- 6 FCB 4 FCH 0
- 7 FCB 6 FCH 1
- 8 FCB 6 FCH 0
- 9 FCB 0 FCH 0
- 10 FCB 1 FCH 2
The goals
Bayern’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 22' | Budu Zivzivadze (Heidenheim) | 0–1 | +25% Heidenheim |
| 2. 31' | Eren Dinkci (Heidenheim) | 0–2 | +18% Heidenheim |
| 3. 44' | Leon Goretzka (Bayern) | 1–2 | +17% Bayern |
| 4. 57' | Leon Goretzka (Bayern) | 2–2 | +33% Bayern |
| 5. 76' | Budu Zivzivadze (Heidenheim) | 2–3 | +41% Heidenheim |
| 90+10' | Michael Olise (Bayern) | 3–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 32, 2025-26
- Union Berlin 2–2 Köln May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Hoffenheim 3–3 Stuttgart May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Werder 1–3 Augsburg May 2, 2026 · replay 51% for Augsburg
- Frankfurt 1–2 HSV May 2, 2026 · replay 39% for HSV
- Leverkusen 4–1 Leipzig May 2, 2026 · replay 56% for Leverkusen
- St. Pauli 1–2 Mainz May 3, 2026 · replay 58% for Mainz
- Gladbach 1–0 Dortmund May 3, 2026 · replay 28% for Gladbach
- Freiburg 1–1 Wolfsburg May 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws