Matchday 32 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
St. Pauli 1–2 Mainz: lucky or expected?
Mainz beat St. Pauli 2–1, and the goals lean Mainz’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for St. Pauli, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, St. Pauli were expected to score 0.9 here and Mainz 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 FC St. Pauli | 1 |
 Mainz 05 | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +42 Mainz lucky · −42 St. Pauli
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. St. Pauli win 3, 3 end level, Mainz win 4.
- 1 STP 1 M05 0
- 2 STP 4 M05 3
- 3 STP 2 M05 0
- 4 STP 2 M05 2
- 5 STP 2 M05 2
- 6 STP 1 M05 1
- 7 STP 0 M05 3
- 8 STP 0 M05 2
- 9 STP 0 M05 1
- 10 STP 0 M05 1
The goals
St. Pauli’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Phillip Tietz (Mainz) | 0–1 | +23% Mainz |
| 2. 40' | Phillip Mwene (Mainz) | 0–2 | +17% Mainz |
| 3. 87' | Abdoulie Ceesay (St. Pauli) | 1–2 | +3% St. Pauli |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Mainz win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 32, 2025-26
- Union Berlin 2–2 Köln May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Bayern 3–3 Heidenheim May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 10% draws
- Hoffenheim 3–3 Stuttgart May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Werder 1–3 Augsburg May 2, 2026 · replay 51% for Augsburg
- Frankfurt 1–2 HSV May 2, 2026 · replay 39% for HSV
- Leverkusen 4–1 Leipzig May 2, 2026 · replay 56% for Leverkusen
- Gladbach 1–0 Dortmund May 3, 2026 · replay 28% for Gladbach
- Freiburg 1–1 Wolfsburg May 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws