Matchday 3 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · September 11, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke: lucky or expected?
Schalke beat Union Berlin 3–1, but the goals lean toward Union Berlin: 4 wins in 10 to Schalke’s 2, 4 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Union Berlin were expected to score 0.9 here and Schalke 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Union Berlin | 1 |
 Schalke 04 | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +58 Schalke lucky · −58 Union Berlin
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Union Berlin win 4, 4 end level, Schalke win 2.
- 1 FCU 1 S04 0
- 2 FCU 1 S04 0
- 3 FCU 1 S04 0
- 4 FCU 2 S04 0
- 5 FCU 0 S04 0
- 6 FCU 1 S04 1
- 7 FCU 1 S04 1
- 8 FCU 0 S04 0
- 9 FCU 0 S04 1
- 10 FCU 0 S04 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Union Berlin 47% to win, 27% for a draw, Schalke 26%. Schalke won, a result we gave 26%. The final margin was 2.5 goals from ours; 13% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Union Berlin’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 25' | R. Gosens (Schalke) | 0–1 | +25% Schalke |
| 2. 46' | A. Aouchiche (Schalke) | 0–2 | +19% Schalke |
| 90+6' | T. Skarke (Union Berlin) | 1–2 | |
| 90+13' | M. Wöber (Schalke) | 1–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Schalke win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2026-27
- Hoffenheim 2–1 Stuttgart Sep 12, 2026 · replay 52% for Hoffenheim
- Dortmund 3–0 Paderborn Sep 12, 2026 · replay 85% for Dortmund
- Augsburg 2–2 Leverkusen Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Mainz 1–3 Frankfurt Sep 12, 2026 · replay 44% for Frankfurt
- Freiburg 5–0 Gladbach Sep 12, 2026 · replay 88% for Freiburg
- Köln 1–1 Werder Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Leipzig 5–0 HSV Sep 13, 2026 · replay 86% for Leipzig
- Elversberg 1–2 Bayern Sep 13, 2026 · replay 63% for Bayern