Matchday 3 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · September 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 1–3 Frankfurt: lucky or expected?
Frankfurt beat Mainz 3–1, but the goals lean toward Mainz: 5 wins in 10 to Frankfurt’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 2.5 here and Frankfurt 2.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 1 |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +56 Frankfurt lucky · −56 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 5, 2 end level, Frankfurt win 3.
- 1 M05 1 SGE 0
- 2 M05 3 SGE 2
- 3 M05 3 SGE 1
- 4 M05 4 SGE 1
- 5 M05 5 SGE 1
- 6 M05 0 SGE 0
- 7 M05 2 SGE 2
- 8 M05 1 SGE 4
- 9 M05 4 SGE 6
- 10 M05 1 SGE 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Mainz 47% to win, 26% for a draw, Frankfurt 28%. Frankfurt won, a result we gave 28%. The final margin was 2.4 goals from ours; 15% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | C. Uzun (Frankfurt) | 0–1 | +23% Frankfurt |
| 2. 45+1' | J. Burkardt (Frankfurt) | 0–2 | +19% Frankfurt |
| 3. 60' | C. Uzun (Frankfurt) | 0–3 | +5% Frankfurt |
| 4. 89' | P. Tietz (Mainz) | 1–3 | +0% Mainz |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Frankfurt win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2026-27
- Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke Sep 11, 2026 · replay 42% for Schalke
- Hoffenheim 2–1 Stuttgart Sep 12, 2026 · replay 52% for Hoffenheim
- Dortmund 3–0 Paderborn Sep 12, 2026 · replay 85% for Dortmund
- Augsburg 2–2 Leverkusen Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Freiburg 5–0 Gladbach Sep 12, 2026 · replay 88% for Freiburg
- Köln 1–1 Werder Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Leipzig 5–0 HSV Sep 13, 2026 · replay 86% for Leipzig
- Elversberg 1–2 Bayern Sep 13, 2026 · replay 63% for Bayern