luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 5 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 10, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Union Berlin 1–0 Elversberg: lucky or expected?

Union Berlin beat Elversberg 1–0, but the goals lean toward Elversberg: 5 wins in 10 to Union Berlin’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Union Berlin were expected to score 1.6 here and Elversberg 1.9.

Full time

Goals
Union Berlin 1
SV Elversberg 0

October 10, 2026

Our prediction before kickoff: Union Berlin win 39%

Luck index +56 Union Berlin lucky · −56 Elversberg

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Union Berlin win 3, 2 end level, Elversberg win 5.

  1. 1 FCU 2 SVE 1
  2. 2 FCU 2 SVE 1
  3. 3 FCU 3 SVE 0
  4. 4 FCU 0 SVE 0
  5. 5 FCU 2 SVE 2
  6. 6 FCU 0 SVE 4
  7. 7 FCU 0 SVE 2
  8. 8 FCU 2 SVE 4
  9. 9 FCU 1 SVE 2
  10. 10 FCU 1 SVE 2

Our prediction before kickoff

We had Union Berlin 39% to win, 27% for a draw, Elversberg 34%. Union Berlin won: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 53% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

The goals

Union Berlin’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Union Berlin was ahead in it, below while Elversberg was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 81' Livan Burcu (Union Berlin) 1–0 +41% Union Berlin

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Union Berlin win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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