Matchday 5 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 3–4 Leverkusen: lucky or expected?
Leverkusen beat Mainz 4–3, but the goals call it even: Leverkusen win 4 of 10, Mainz 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 2.2 here and Leverkusen 2.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 3 |
 Bayer Leverkusen | 4 |
What the goals say
Luck index +49 Leverkusen lucky · −49 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 4, 2 end level, Leverkusen win 4.
- 1 M05 3 B04 2
- 2 M05 2 B04 1
- 3 M05 2 B04 0
- 4 M05 4 B04 0
- 5 M05 2 B04 2
- 6 M05 2 B04 2
- 7 M05 2 B04 5
- 8 M05 1 B04 3
- 9 M05 0 B04 1
- 10 M05 1 B04 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Leverkusen 44% to win, 26% for a draw, Mainz 29%. Leverkusen won: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.7 goals from ours; 52% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 5' | R. Andrich (Leverkusen) | 0–1 | +22% Leverkusen |
| 2. 9' | P. Schick (Leverkusen) | 0–2 | +19% Leverkusen |
| 3. 33' | A. Caci (Mainz) | 1–2 | +20% Mainz |
| 4. 42' | A. Caci (Mainz) | 2–2 | +29% Mainz |
| 5. 55' | J. Quansah (Leverkusen) | 2–3 | +32% Leverkusen |
| 6. 65' | M. Diaby (Leverkusen) | 2–4 | +16% Leverkusen |
| 90+2' | B. Hollerbach (Mainz) | 3–4 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leverkusen win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2026-27
- Dortmund 2–2 Werder Oct 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Paderborn 0–2 Stuttgart Oct 10, 2026 · replay 49% for Stuttgart
- Union Berlin 1–0 Elversberg Oct 10, 2026 · replay 44% for Union Berlin
- Hoffenheim 2–3 HSV Oct 10, 2026 · replay 33% for HSV
- Augsburg 2–2 Bayern Oct 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Leipzig 6–0 Frankfurt Oct 10, 2026 · replay 78% for Leipzig
- Köln 2–1 Gladbach Oct 11, 2026 · replay 69% for Köln
- Freiburg 2–1 Schalke Oct 11, 2026 · replay 86% for Freiburg