Matchday 6 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Union Berlin 0–0 Dortmund: lucky or expected?
Union Berlin and Dortmund drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Union Berlin win 2 of 10, Dortmund 5, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Union Berlin were expected to score 0.7 here and Dortmund 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Union Berlin | 0 |
 Borussia Dortmund | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +22 Union Berlin about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Union Berlin win 2, 3 end level, Dortmund win 5.
- 1 FCU 1 BVB 0
- 2 FCU 3 BVB 1
- 3 FCU 1 BVB 1
- 4 FCU 1 BVB 1
- 5 FCU 0 BVB 0
- 6 FCU 0 BVB 4
- 7 FCU 0 BVB 2
- 8 FCU 1 BVB 3
- 9 FCU 0 BVB 1
- 10 FCU 3 BVB 4
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Dortmund 62% to win, 23% for a draw, Union Berlin 15%. It ended level; we gave a draw 23%. The final margin was 1.1 goals from ours; 33% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
No goals: Union Berlin and Dortmund drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (28% for Union Berlin, draws counted half).
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 6, 2026-27
- Frankfurt 1–0 Köln Oct 16, 2026 · replay 73% for Frankfurt
- HSV 1–0 Stuttgart Oct 17, 2026 · replay 46% for HSV
- Werder 2–2 Paderborn Oct 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Elversberg 4–3 Augsburg Oct 17, 2026 · replay 60% for Elversberg
- Schalke 0–1 Mainz Oct 17, 2026 · replay 36% for Mainz
- Bayern 6–1 Leipzig Oct 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Bayern
- Leverkusen 2–1 Freiburg Oct 18, 2026 · replay 53% for Leverkusen
- Gladbach 1–2 Hoffenheim Oct 18, 2026 · replay 53% for Hoffenheim