Matchday 6 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Schalke 0–1 Mainz: lucky or expected?
Mainz beat Schalke 1–0, but the goals lean toward Schalke: 5 wins in 10 to Mainz’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Schalke were expected to score 1.5 here and Mainz 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Schalke 04 | 0 |
 Mainz 05 | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +64 Mainz very lucky · −64 Schalke
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Schalke win 5, 3 end level, Mainz win 2.
- 1 S04 1 M05 0
- 2 S04 1 M05 0
- 3 S04 3 M05 1
- 4 S04 3 M05 1
- 5 S04 4 M05 1
- 6 S04 0 M05 0
- 7 S04 1 M05 1
- 8 S04 0 M05 0
- 9 S04 2 M05 4
- 10 S04 1 M05 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had it too close to call, 28% for a draw, Schalke 34%, Mainz 38%. Mainz won, in a match we had too close to call. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 51% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Schalke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 24' | P. Tietz (Mainz) | 0–1 | +25% Mainz |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Mainz win 36% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2026-27
- Frankfurt 1–0 Köln Oct 16, 2026 · replay 73% for Frankfurt
- Union Berlin 0–0 Dortmund Oct 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- HSV 1–0 Stuttgart Oct 17, 2026 · replay 46% for HSV
- Werder 2–2 Paderborn Oct 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Elversberg 4–3 Augsburg Oct 17, 2026 · replay 60% for Elversberg
- Bayern 6–1 Leipzig Oct 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Bayern
- Leverkusen 2–1 Freiburg Oct 18, 2026 · replay 53% for Leverkusen
- Gladbach 1–2 Hoffenheim Oct 18, 2026 · replay 53% for Hoffenheim