Matchday 8 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 31, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leverkusen 2–4 Stuttgart: lucky or expected?
Stuttgart beat Leverkusen 4–2, but the goals lean toward Leverkusen: 5 wins in 10 to Stuttgart’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leverkusen were expected to score 2.3 here and Stuttgart 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayer Leverkusen | 2 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 4 |
What the goals say
Luck index +64 Stuttgart very lucky · −64 Leverkusen
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leverkusen win 5, 2 end level, Stuttgart win 3.
- 1 B04 2 VFB 1
- 2 B04 1 VFB 0
- 3 B04 3 VFB 1
- 4 B04 6 VFB 3
- 5 B04 3 VFB 0
- 6 B04 1 VFB 1
- 7 B04 2 VFB 2
- 8 B04 1 VFB 3
- 9 B04 0 VFB 1
- 10 B04 2 VFB 3
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Leverkusen 50% to win, 24% for a draw, Stuttgart 26%. Stuttgart won, a result we gave 26%. The final margin was 2.6 goals from ours; 9% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. Made Sat, Oct 31, 14:01 CET and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Leverkusen’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | E. Demirovic (Stuttgart) | 0–1 | +23% Stuttgart |
| 2. 22' | J. Leweling (Stuttgart) | 0–2 | +20% Stuttgart |
| 3. 29' | P. Schick (Leverkusen) | 1–2 | +20% Leverkusen |
| 4. 51' | B. El Khannouss (Stuttgart) | 1–3 | +19% Stuttgart |
| 5. 66' | E. Demirovic (Stuttgart) | 1–4 | +4% Stuttgart |
| 6. 79' | Ibrahim Maza (Leverkusen) | 2–4 | +1% Leverkusen |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 36% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2026-27
- Elversberg 4–1 Mainz Oct 30, 2026 · replay 70% for Elversberg
- Gladbach 0–0 Paderborn Oct 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Schalke 0–2 Leipzig Oct 31, 2026 · replay 68% for Leipzig
- Augsburg 1–2 Freiburg Oct 31, 2026 · replay 48% for Freiburg
- Werder 2–0 Hoffenheim Oct 31, 2026 · replay 73% for Werder
- Bayern 2–2 Dortmund Oct 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Union Berlin 1–1 Köln Nov 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Frankfurt 3–1 HSV Nov 1, 2026 · replay 70% for Frankfurt