Matchday 8 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · October 30, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Elversberg 4–1 Mainz: lucky or expected?
Elversberg beat Mainz 4–1, and the goals lean Elversberg’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Mainz, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Elversberg were expected to score 2.8 here and Mainz 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SV Elversberg | 4 |
 Mainz 05 | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +30 Elversberg lucky · −30 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Elversberg win 6, 2 end level, Mainz win 2.
- 1 SVE 2 M05 1
- 2 SVE 3 M05 2
- 3 SVE 3 M05 1
- 4 SVE 3 M05 1
- 5 SVE 4 M05 1
- 6 SVE 5 M05 0
- 7 SVE 0 M05 0
- 8 SVE 4 M05 4
- 9 SVE 2 M05 4
- 10 SVE 1 M05 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had it too close to call, 26% for a draw, Elversberg 36%, Mainz 38%. Elversberg won, in a match we had too close to call. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 4% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. Made Fri, Oct 30, 17:53 CET and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Elversberg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | F. Keidel (Elversberg) | 1–0 | +18% Elversberg |
| 2. 26' | Francis Onyeka (Elversberg) | 2–0 | +11% Elversberg |
| 3. 45+1' | M. Krattenmacher (Elversberg) | 3–0 | +3% Elversberg |
| 90+1' | Cole Campbell (Elversberg) | 4–0 | |
| 90+2' | B. Hollerbach (Mainz) | 4–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Elversberg win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 8, 2026-27
- Gladbach 0–0 Paderborn Oct 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Schalke 0–2 Leipzig Oct 31, 2026 · replay 68% for Leipzig
- Augsburg 1–2 Freiburg Oct 31, 2026 · replay 48% for Freiburg
- Werder 2–0 Hoffenheim Oct 31, 2026 · replay 73% for Werder
- Leverkusen 2–4 Stuttgart Oct 31, 2026 · replay 36% for Stuttgart
- Bayern 2–2 Dortmund Oct 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Union Berlin 1–1 Köln Nov 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Frankfurt 3–1 HSV Nov 1, 2026 · replay 70% for Frankfurt