Matchday 9 · Bundesliga 2026-27 · November 7, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 1–2 Bayern: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Mainz 2–1, and the goals lean Bayern’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Mainz, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 1.8 here and Bayern 3.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 1 |
 Bayern Munich | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +28 Bayern lucky · −28 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 2, 2 end level, Bayern win 6.
- 1 M05 2 FCB 1
- 2 M05 6 FCB 4
- 3 M05 1 FCB 1
- 4 M05 3 FCB 3
- 5 M05 1 FCB 5
- 6 M05 0 FCB 3
- 7 M05 1 FCB 4
- 8 M05 1 FCB 3
- 9 M05 3 FCB 5
- 10 M05 2 FCB 3
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Bayern 68% to win, 18% for a draw, Mainz 14%. Bayern won: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.5 goals from ours; 79% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. Made Sat, Nov 7, 14:30 CET and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | J. Kimmich (Bayern) | 0–1 | +23% Bayern |
| 2. 57' | Lennart Karl (Bayern) | 0–2 | +18% Bayern |
| 90+3' | P. Tietz (Mainz) | 1–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2026-27
- HSV 3–1 Gladbach Nov 6, 2026 · replay 69% for HSV
- Leipzig 5–2 Augsburg Nov 7, 2026 · replay 72% for Leipzig
- Dortmund 2–1 Elversberg Nov 7, 2026 · replay 76% for Dortmund
- Paderborn 2–2 Frankfurt Nov 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Stuttgart 1–0 Werder Nov 7, 2026 · replay 57% for Stuttgart
- Köln 1–2 Leverkusen Nov 8, 2026 · replay 58% for Leverkusen
- Freiburg 2–0 Union Berlin Nov 8, 2026 · replay 87% for Freiburg
- Hoffenheim 2–1 Schalke Nov 8, 2026 · replay 66% for Hoffenheim