Semi-finals · Euro 2020 · July 6, 2021 · pens
Italy 1–1 Spain: who deserved to win?
Italy went through on penalties after 1–1, but the replays send Spain through 8 times in 10. Spain made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +77 Italy very lucky · −77 Spain
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Italy win 1, 3 end level, Spain win 6.
- 1 ITA 1 ESP 0
- 2 ITA 0 ESP 0
- 3 ITA 0 ESP 0
- 4 ITA 0 ESP 0
- 5 ITA 0 ESP 3
- 6 ITA 0 ESP 2
- 7 ITA 0 ESP 2
- 8 ITA 1 ESP 2
- 9 ITA 0 ESP 1
- 10 ITA 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Italy win 12%, 31% end level, Spain win 57%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Italy by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Italy by 2 | 1.8% |
| Italy by 1 | 9.8% |
| Draw | 31.0% |
| Spain by 1 | 30.6% |
| Spain by 2 | 16.8% |
| Spain by 3+ | 9.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Italy | 7 | 1 | 0.40 | +0.60 |
 Spain | 16 | 1 | 1.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 59' | Federico Chiesa scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 79' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shot | 0.44 |
When it happened
Italy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chanceDaniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% ITA |
| 2 | 51' | Sergio Busquets i Burgos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ITA |
| 3 | 59' | Federico Chiesa scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +33% ITA |
| 4 | 65' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ITA |
| 5 | 79' | Álvaro Borja Morata Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +24% ESP |
| 6 | 81' | Sergio Busquets i Burgos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ITA |
| 7 | ET 109' | Domenico Berardi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ESP |
| 8 | Pens 120' | Italy won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +50% ITA |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Italy go through in 23% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from semi-finals, 2020
- England 2–1 Denmark Jul 7, 2021 · AET · replay 79% for England