Semi-finals · Euro 2020 · July 7, 2021 · AET
England 2–1 Denmark: who deserved to win?
England beat Denmark 2–1 after extra time, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, England go through 8 times in 10. England made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped England.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +21 England about even · −21 Denmark
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. England win 6, 3 end level, Denmark win 1.
- 1 ENG 1 DEN 0
- 2 ENG 1 DEN 0
- 3 ENG 2 DEN 1
- 4 ENG 1 DEN 0
- 5 ENG 2 DEN 0
- 6 ENG 3 DEN 0
- 7 ENG 0 DEN 0
- 8 ENG 1 DEN 1
- 9 ENG 0 DEN 0
- 10 ENG 1 DEN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
England win 60%, 30% end level, Denmark win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| England by 3+ | 10.9% |
| England by 2 | 17.4% |
| England by 1 | 31.8% |
| Draw | 30.3% |
| Denmark by 1 | 8.0% |
| Denmark by 2 | 1.5% |
| Denmark by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 England | 21 (1 pen) | 1 | 3.05 | −2.05 |
 Denmark | 6 | 1 | 0.38 | +0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Mikkel Damsgaard scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 37' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
| 103' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 103' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.59 |
When it happened
England’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | Mikkel Damsgaard scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +26% DEN |
| 2 | 37' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +15% DEN |
| 3 | 38' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for EnglandOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +28% ENG |
| 4 | 58' | Kasper Dolberg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ENG |
| 5 | 96' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +8% DEN |
| 6 | ET 97' | John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% DEN |
| 7 | ET 103' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +32% DEN |
| 8 | ET 103' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +16% ENG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. England go through in 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from semi-finals, 2020
- Italy 1–1 Spain Jul 6, 2021 · pens · replay 23% for Italy