Semi-finals · Euro 2024 · July 9, 2024
Spain 2–1 France: who deserved to win?
Spain beat France 2–1, but the replays send France through 6 times in 10. France made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +63 Spain very lucky · −63 France
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Spain win 2, 4 end level, France win 4.
- 1 ESP 1 FRA 0
- 2 ESP 2 FRA 1
- 3 ESP 0 FRA 0
- 4 ESP 0 FRA 0
- 5 ESP 1 FRA 1
- 6 ESP 0 FRA 0
- 7 ESP 0 FRA 2
- 8 ESP 0 FRA 2
- 9 ESP 0 FRA 1
- 10 ESP 0 FRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Spain win 20%, 40% end level, France win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Spain by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Spain by 2 | 3.6% |
| Spain by 1 | 15.6% |
| Draw | 39.6% |
| France by 1 | 26.8% |
| France by 2 | 10.8% |
| France by 3+ | 3.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 6 | 2 | 0.42 | +1.58 |
 France | 9 | 1 | 0.85 | +0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Randal Kolo Muani scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 20' | Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 24' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Spain’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Fabián Ruiz Peña didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% FRA |
| 2 | 8' | Randal Kolo Muani scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +18% FRA |
| 3 | 20' | The game turned hereLamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +25% ESP |
| 4 | 24' | Daniel Olmo Carvajal scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +25% ESP |
| 5 | 52' | Aurélien Djani Tchouaméni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ESP |
| 6 | 62' | Dayotchanculle Upamecano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ESP |
| 7 | 75' | Theo Bernard François Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% ESP |
| 8 | 85' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% ESP |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain go through in 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from semi-finals, 2024
- Netherlands 1–2 England Jul 10, 2024 · replay 73% for England