Semi-finals · Euro 2024 · July 10, 2024
Netherlands 1–2 England: who deserved to win?
England beat Netherlands 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, England go through 7 times in 10. England made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 1 | 0.41 |
 England | 2 | 1.24 |
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +27 England lucky · −27 Netherlands
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Netherlands win 1, 3 end level, England win 6.
- 1 NED 1 ENG 0
- 2 NED 2 ENG 2
- 3 NED 0 ENG 0
- 4 NED 0 ENG 0
- 5 NED 0 ENG 3
- 6 NED 0 ENG 2
- 7 NED 0 ENG 2
- 8 NED 0 ENG 1
- 9 NED 0 ENG 1
- 10 NED 0 ENG 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Netherlands win 14%, 32% end level, England win 54%. The line is what actually happened: England by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Netherlands by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 2.0% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 11.7% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| England by 1 | 30.5% |
| England by 2 | 16.0% |
| England by 3+ | 7.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 7 | 1 | 0.41 | +0.59 |
 England | 9 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.24 | +0.76 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Xavi Simons scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 17' | Harry Kane scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 90' | Ollie Watkins scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Netherlands’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Xavi Simons scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +23% NED |
| 2 | 17' | Harry Kane scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% ENG |
| 3 | 22' | Phil Foden didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% NED |
| 4 | 64' | Virgil van Dijk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ENG |
| 5 | 76' | Wout Weghorst didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ENG |
| 6 | 76' | Xavi Simons didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ENG |
| 7 | 87' | Cole Palmer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% NED |
| 8 | 90' | Ollie Watkins scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +48% ENG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). England go through in 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from semi-finals, 2024
- Spain 2–1 France Jul 9, 2024 · replay 37% for Spain