Final · World Cup 2018 · July 15, 2018
France 4–2 Croatia: who deserved to win?
France beat Croatia 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: France go through 5 times in 10. Croatia made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.1. An own goal helped France.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +49 France lucky · −49 Croatia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. France win 4, 3 end level, Croatia win 3.
- 1 FRA 2 CRO 1
- 2 FRA 1 CRO 0
- 3 FRA 3 CRO 1
- 4 FRA 3 CRO 0
- 5 FRA 1 CRO 1
- 6 FRA 1 CRO 1
- 7 FRA 1 CRO 1
- 8 FRA 0 CRO 2
- 9 FRA 0 CRO 1
- 10 FRA 1 CRO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 38%, 28% end level, Croatia win 34%. The line is what actually happened: France by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 5.8% |
| France by 2 | 11.2% |
| France by 1 | 21.2% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
| Croatia by 1 | 19.9% |
| Croatia by 2 | 9.7% |
| Croatia by 3+ | 4.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 8 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.10 | +1.90 |
 Croatia | 15 | 2 | 1.48 | +0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 37' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 58' | Paul Pogba scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 64' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 68' | Mario Mandžukić scored from a shot | 0.56 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Own goal by nan, for FranceOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +24% FRA |
| 2 | 20' | Domagoj Vida didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% FRA |
| 3 | 27' | Ivan Perišić scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +25% CRO |
| 4 | 37' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% FRA |
| 5 | 39' | Ante Rebić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% FRA |
| 6 | 42' | Ivan Perišić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% FRA |
| 7 | 45' | Domagoj Vida didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% FRA |
| 8 | 58' | Paul Pogba scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% FRA |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France go through in 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).