luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Quarter-finals · World Cup 2026 · July 10, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Spain 2–1 Belgium: lucky or expected?

Spain beat Belgium 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Spain go through 7 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Spain were expected to score 1.4 here and Belgium 0.6.

Full time

Goals
Spain 2
Belgium 1

July 10, 2026

Luck index +29 Spain lucky · −29 Belgium

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Spain win 5, 3 end level, Belgium win 2.

  1. 1 ESP 1 BEL 0
  2. 2 ESP 1 BEL 0
  3. 3 ESP 1 BEL 0
  4. 4 ESP 2 BEL 0
  5. 5 ESP 3 BEL 0
  6. 6 ESP 0 BEL 0
  7. 7 ESP 0 BEL 0
  8. 8 ESP 1 BEL 1
  9. 9 ESP 0 BEL 2
  10. 10 ESP 0 BEL 1

The goals

Spain’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Spain was ahead in it, below while Belgium was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 30' Fabián Ruiz (Spain) 1–0 +27% Spain
2. 41' Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) 1–1 +29% Belgium
3. 88' Mikel Merino (Spain) 2–1 +48% Spain

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Spain go through in 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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