Semi-finals · World Cup 2026 · July 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
France 0–2 Spain: lucky or expected?
Spain beat France 2–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Spain go through 6 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, France were expected to score 1.1 here and Spain 1.5.
What the goals say: who goes through
Luck index +39 Spain lucky · −39 France
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. France win 3, 3 end level, Spain win 4.
- 1 FRA 2 ESP 1
- 2 FRA 1 ESP 0
- 3 FRA 3 ESP 1
- 4 FRA 1 ESP 1
- 5 FRA 1 ESP 1
- 6 FRA 1 ESP 1
- 7 FRA 1 ESP 4
- 8 FRA 0 ESP 2
- 9 FRA 0 ESP 1
- 10 FRA 1 ESP 2
The goals
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 22' | Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain, penalty) | 0–1 | +25% Spain |
| 2. 58' | Pedro Porro (Spain) | 0–2 | +13% Spain |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Spain go through in 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from semi-finals, 2026
- England 1–2 Argentina Jul 15, 2026 · AET · replay 51% for Argentina