luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Semi-finals · World Cup 2026 · July 15, 2026 · AET

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

England 1–2 Argentina: lucky or expected?

Argentina beat England 2–1 after extra time, but the goals call it close to a coin flip: Argentina go through 5 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, England were expected to score 1.8 here and Argentina 1.8.

Full time · after extra time

Goals
England 1
Argentina 2

July 15, 2026

Luck index +49 Argentina lucky · −49 England

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. England win 4, 2 end level, Argentina win 4.

  1. 1 ENG 2 ARG 1
  2. 2 ENG 1 ARG 0
  3. 3 ENG 2 ARG 0
  4. 4 ENG 4 ARG 1
  5. 5 ENG 2 ARG 2
  6. 6 ENG 0 ARG 0
  7. 7 ENG 0 ARG 3
  8. 8 ENG 1 ARG 3
  9. 9 ENG 2 ARG 3
  10. 10 ENG 1 ARG 2

The goals

England’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while England was ahead in it, below while Argentina was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 55' Anthony Gordon (England) 1–0 +32% England
2. 86' Enzo Fernández (Argentina) 1–1 +47% Argentina
3. 92' Lautaro Martínez (Argentina) 1–2 +35% Argentina

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 1–2. Argentina go through in 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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