Third-place play-off · World Cup 2026 · July 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
France 4–6 England: lucky or expected?
England beat France 6–4, but the goals call it close to a coin flip: England go through 5 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, France were expected to score 2.4 here and England 2.2.
What the goals say: who goes through
Luck index +53 England lucky · −53 France
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. France win 4, 2 end level, England win 4.
- 1 FRA 2 ENG 1
- 2 FRA 2 ENG 1
- 3 FRA 3 ENG 1
- 4 FRA 4 ENG 0
- 5 FRA 2 ENG 2
- 6 FRA 1 ENG 1
- 7 FRA 2 ENG 5
- 8 FRA 2 ENG 4
- 9 FRA 1 ENG 2
- 10 FRA 2 ENG 3
The goals
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 3' | Declan Rice (England) | 0–1 | +23% England |
| 2. 18' | Ezri Konsa (England) | 0–2 | +16% England |
| 3. 37' | Bukayo Saka (England) | 0–3 | +5% England |
| 4. 45+1' | Bukayo Saka (England) | 0–4 | +1% England |
| 5. 48' | Kylian Mbappé (France) | 1–4 | +1% France |
| 6. 54' | Bradley Barcola (France) | 2–4 | +4% France |
| 7. 66' | Kylian Mbappé (France) | 3–4 | +11% France |
| 8. 87' | Bukayo Saka (England, penalty) | 3–5 | +2% England |
| 90+6' | Ousmane Dembélé (France) | 4–5 | |
| 90+8' | Jude Bellingham (England) | 4–6 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. England go through in 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
