luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 10 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 8, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Gladbach 3–1 Köln: lucky or expected?

Gladbach beat Köln 3–1, and the goals lean Gladbach’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Köln, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Gladbach were expected to score 1.6 here and Köln 1.3.

Full time

Goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3
1. FC Köln 1

November 8, 2025

Luck index +44 Gladbach lucky · −44 Köln

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Gladbach win 4, 3 end level, Köln win 3.

  1. 1 BMG 1 KOE 0
  2. 2 BMG 2 KOE 1
  3. 3 BMG 2 KOE 0
  4. 4 BMG 3 KOE 0
  5. 5 BMG 2 KOE 2
  6. 6 BMG 0 KOE 0
  7. 7 BMG 2 KOE 2
  8. 8 BMG 0 KOE 2
  9. 9 BMG 0 KOE 1
  10. 10 BMG 1 KOE 2

The goals

Gladbach’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Gladbach was ahead in it, below while Köln was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 45+2' Philipp Sander (Gladbach) 1–0 +28% Gladbach
2. 61' Kevin Diks (Gladbach, penalty) 2–0 +12% Gladbach
3. 64' Haris Tabakovic (Gladbach) 3–0 +2% Gladbach
90+2' Gian-Luca Waldschmidt (Köln, penalty) 3–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Gladbach win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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