Matchday 10 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 8, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Hoffenheim 3–1 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Hoffenheim beat Leipzig 3–1, and the goals lean Hoffenheim’s way: 4 wins in 10, 4 for Leipzig, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 1.9 here and Leipzig 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 TSG Hoffenheim | 3 |
 RB Leipzig | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +44 Hoffenheim lucky · −44 Leipzig
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 4, 2 end level, Leipzig win 4.
- 1 TSG 1 RBL 0
- 2 TSG 4 RBL 3
- 3 TSG 4 RBL 2
- 4 TSG 3 RBL 0
- 5 TSG 2 RBL 2
- 6 TSG 2 RBL 2
- 7 TSG 0 RBL 3
- 8 TSG 1 RBL 3
- 9 TSG 1 RBL 2
- 10 TSG 2 RBL 3
The goals
Hoffenheim’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | Yan Diomande (Leipzig) | 0–1 | +23% Leipzig |
| 2. 20' | Albian Hajdari (Hoffenheim) | 1–1 | +25% Hoffenheim |
| 3. 38' | Tim Lemperle (Hoffenheim) | 2–1 | +26% Hoffenheim |
| 4. 79' | Grischa Proemel (Hoffenheim) | 3–1 | +7% Hoffenheim |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hoffenheim win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Werder 2–1 Wolfsburg Nov 7, 2025 · replay 54% for Werder
- Union Berlin 2–2 Bayern Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- HSV 1–1 Dortmund Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Leverkusen 6–0 Heidenheim Nov 8, 2025 · replay 77% for Leverkusen
- Gladbach 3–1 Köln Nov 8, 2025 · replay 56% for Gladbach
- Freiburg 2–1 St. Pauli Nov 9, 2025 · replay 69% for Freiburg
- Stuttgart 3–2 Augsburg Nov 9, 2025 · replay 72% for Stuttgart
- Frankfurt 1–0 Mainz Nov 9, 2025 · replay 58% for Frankfurt