Matchday 10 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · November 9, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Freiburg 2–1 St. Pauli: lucky or expected?
Freiburg beat St. Pauli 2–1, and the goals lean Freiburg’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for St. Pauli, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Freiburg were expected to score 1.7 here and St. Pauli 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 2 |
 FC St. Pauli | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +31 Freiburg lucky · −31 St. Pauli
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Freiburg win 6, 3 end level, St. Pauli win 1.
- 1 SCF 1 STP 0
- 2 SCF 2 STP 1
- 3 SCF 2 STP 1
- 4 SCF 3 STP 1
- 5 SCF 3 STP 1
- 6 SCF 3 STP 0
- 7 SCF 2 STP 2
- 8 SCF 1 STP 1
- 9 SCF 1 STP 1
- 10 SCF 1 STP 2
The goals
Freiburg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 40' | Yuito Suzuki (Freiburg) | 1–0 | +26% Freiburg |
| 2. 50' | Maximilian Eggestein (Freiburg) | 2–0 | +13% Freiburg |
| 3. 69' | Louis Oppie (St. Pauli) | 2–1 | +10% St. Pauli |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Freiburg win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2025-26
- Werder 2–1 Wolfsburg Nov 7, 2025 · replay 54% for Werder
- Union Berlin 2–2 Bayern Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Hoffenheim 3–1 Leipzig Nov 8, 2025 · replay 56% for Hoffenheim
- HSV 1–1 Dortmund Nov 8, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Leverkusen 6–0 Heidenheim Nov 8, 2025 · replay 77% for Leverkusen
- Gladbach 3–1 Köln Nov 8, 2025 · replay 56% for Gladbach
- Stuttgart 3–2 Augsburg Nov 9, 2025 · replay 72% for Stuttgart
- Frankfurt 1–0 Mainz Nov 9, 2025 · replay 58% for Frankfurt