luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 17 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 13, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Stuttgart 3–2 Frankfurt: lucky or expected?

Stuttgart beat Frankfurt 3–2, and the goals lean Stuttgart’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Frankfurt, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Stuttgart were expected to score 2.4 here and Frankfurt 1.6.

Full time

Goals
VfB Stuttgart 3
Eintracht Frankfurt 2

January 13, 2026

Luck index +34 Stuttgart lucky · −34 Frankfurt

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Stuttgart win 6, 2 end level, Frankfurt win 2.

  1. 1 VFB 2 SGE 1
  2. 2 VFB 4 SGE 3
  3. 3 VFB 3 SGE 1
  4. 4 VFB 3 SGE 1
  5. 5 VFB 4 SGE 1
  6. 6 VFB 5 SGE 1
  7. 7 VFB 2 SGE 2
  8. 8 VFB 2 SGE 2
  9. 9 VFB 3 SGE 5
  10. 10 VFB 3 SGE 4

The goals

Stuttgart’s chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Stuttgart was ahead in it, below while Frankfurt was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 5' Rasmus Kristensen (Frankfurt) 0–1 +23% Frankfurt
2. 27' Ermedin Demirovic (Stuttgart) 1–1 +26% Stuttgart
3. 35' Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) 2–1 +25% Stuttgart
4. 80' Ayoube Amaimouni (Frankfurt) 2–2 +42% Frankfurt
5. 87' Nikolas Nartey (Stuttgart) 3–2 +47% Stuttgart

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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