Matchday 17 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Köln 1–3 Bayern: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Köln 3–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Köln were expected to score 1.4 here and Bayern 3.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Köln | 1 |
 Bayern Munich | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +20 Bayern about even · −20 Köln
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Köln win 1, 1 ends level, Bayern win 8.
- 1 KOE 2 FCB 1
- 2 KOE 1 FCB 1
- 3 KOE 2 FCB 8
- 4 KOE 1 FCB 5
- 5 KOE 1 FCB 4
- 6 KOE 4 FCB 7
- 7 KOE 1 FCB 3
- 8 KOE 1 FCB 3
- 9 KOE 0 FCB 2
- 10 KOE 0 FCB 1
The goals
Köln’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 41' | Linton Maina (Köln) | 1–0 | +26% Köln |
| 2. 45+5' | Serge Gnabry (Bayern) | 1–1 | +29% Bayern |
| 3. 71' | Kim Minjae (Bayern) | 1–2 | +38% Bayern |
| 4. 84' | Lennart Karl (Bayern) | 1–3 | +5% Bayern |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2025-26
- Stuttgart 3–2 Frankfurt Jan 13, 2026 · replay 66% for Stuttgart
- Mainz 2–1 Heidenheim Jan 13, 2026 · replay 67% for Mainz
- Dortmund 3–0 Werder Jan 13, 2026 · replay 85% for Dortmund
- Wolfsburg 2–1 St. Pauli Jan 14, 2026 · replay 60% for Wolfsburg
- Leipzig 2–0 Freiburg Jan 14, 2026 · replay 66% for Leipzig
- Hoffenheim 5–1 Gladbach Jan 14, 2026 · replay 71% for Hoffenheim
- Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin Jan 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- HSV 0–1 Leverkusen Mar 4, 2026 · replay 61% for Leverkusen