Matchday 17 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolfsburg 2–1 St. Pauli: lucky or expected?
Wolfsburg beat St. Pauli 2–1, and the goals lean Wolfsburg’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for St. Pauli, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolfsburg were expected to score 1.6 here and St. Pauli 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfL Wolfsburg | 2 |
 FC St. Pauli | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +40 Wolfsburg lucky · −40 St. Pauli
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolfsburg win 5, 3 end level, St. Pauli win 2.
- 1 WOB 1 STP 0
- 2 WOB 1 STP 0
- 3 WOB 2 STP 0
- 4 WOB 3 STP 1
- 5 WOB 3 STP 0
- 6 WOB 1 STP 1
- 7 WOB 1 STP 1
- 8 WOB 1 STP 1
- 9 WOB 1 STP 3
- 10 WOB 0 STP 1
The goals
Wolfsburg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 25' | Christian Eriksen (Wolfsburg, penalty) | 1–0 | +23% Wolfsburg |
| 2. 40' | Eric Smith (St. Pauli) | 1–1 | +26% St. Pauli |
| 3. 88' | Dzenan Pejcinovic (Wolfsburg) | 2–1 | +48% Wolfsburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Wolfsburg win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2025-26
- Stuttgart 3–2 Frankfurt Jan 13, 2026 · replay 66% for Stuttgart
- Mainz 2–1 Heidenheim Jan 13, 2026 · replay 67% for Mainz
- Dortmund 3–0 Werder Jan 13, 2026 · replay 85% for Dortmund
- Leipzig 2–0 Freiburg Jan 14, 2026 · replay 66% for Leipzig
- Hoffenheim 5–1 Gladbach Jan 14, 2026 · replay 71% for Hoffenheim
- Köln 1–3 Bayern Jan 14, 2026 · replay 80% for Bayern
- Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin Jan 15, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- HSV 0–1 Leverkusen Mar 4, 2026 · replay 61% for Leverkusen