luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 18 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 17, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Dortmund 3–2 St. Pauli: lucky or expected?

Dortmund beat St. Pauli 3–2, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Dortmund win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Dortmund were expected to score 2.2 here and St. Pauli 0.3.

Full time

Goals
Borussia Dortmund 3
FC St. Pauli 2

January 17, 2026

Luck index +11 Dortmund about even · −11 St. Pauli

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Dortmund win 8, 2 end level, St. Pauli win 0.

  1. 1 BVB 2 STP 1
  2. 2 BVB 1 STP 0
  3. 3 BVB 2 STP 0
  4. 4 BVB 2 STP 0
  5. 5 BVB 3 STP 1
  6. 6 BVB 3 STP 0
  7. 7 BVB 4 STP 0
  8. 8 BVB 6 STP 1
  9. 9 BVB 1 STP 1
  10. 10 BVB 0 STP 0

The goals

Dortmund’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Dortmund was ahead in it, below while St. Pauli was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 45+1' Julian Brandt (Dortmund) 1–0 +27% Dortmund
2. 54' Karim Adeyemi (Dortmund) 2–0 +13% Dortmund
3. 62' James Sands (St. Pauli) 2–1 +11% St. Pauli
4. 72' Ricky-Jade Jones (St. Pauli) 2–2 +37% St. Pauli
90+5' Emre Can (Dortmund, penalty) 3–2

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Dortmund win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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