Matchday 18 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Augsburg 2–2 Freiburg: lucky or expected?
Augsburg and Freiburg drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Augsburg win 4 of 10, Freiburg 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Augsburg were expected to score 1.6 here and Freiburg 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 FC Augsburg | 2 |
 SC Freiburg | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −2 Augsburg about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Augsburg win 4, 3 end level, Freiburg win 3.
- 1 FCA 2 SCF 1
- 2 FCA 1 SCF 0
- 3 FCA 2 SCF 0
- 4 FCA 3 SCF 0
- 5 FCA 1 SCF 1
- 6 FCA 1 SCF 1
- 7 FCA 1 SCF 1
- 8 FCA 0 SCF 3
- 9 FCA 2 SCF 3
- 10 FCA 1 SCF 2
The goals
Augsburg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 47' | Alexis Claude Maurice (Augsburg) | 1–0 | +28% Augsburg |
| 2. 49' | Elvis Rexhbecaj (Augsburg) | 2–0 | +13% Augsburg |
| 3. 59' | Yuito Suzuki (Freiburg) | 2–1 | +12% Freiburg |
| 4. 62' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 2–2 | +33% Freiburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
- Werder 3–3 Frankfurt Jan 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Wolfsburg 1–1 Heidenheim Jan 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Köln 2–1 Mainz Jan 17, 2026 · replay 51% for Köln
- Dortmund 3–2 St. Pauli Jan 17, 2026 · replay 89% for Dortmund
- HSV 0–0 Gladbach Jan 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Leverkusen Jan 17, 2026 · replay 54% for Hoffenheim
- Leipzig 1–5 Bayern Jan 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Bayern
- Stuttgart 1–1 Union Berlin Jan 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 21% draws