Matchday 18 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolfsburg 1–1 Heidenheim: lucky or expected?
Wolfsburg and Heidenheim drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Wolfsburg win 5 of 10, Heidenheim 3, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolfsburg were expected to score 2.0 here and Heidenheim 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfL Wolfsburg | 1 |
 1. FC Heidenheim | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −9 Wolfsburg about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolfsburg win 5, 2 end level, Heidenheim win 3.
- 1 WOB 2 FCH 1
- 2 WOB 3 FCH 2
- 3 WOB 4 FCH 2
- 4 WOB 3 FCH 1
- 5 WOB 4 FCH 0
- 6 WOB 2 FCH 2
- 7 WOB 1 FCH 1
- 8 WOB 2 FCH 4
- 9 WOB 1 FCH 2
- 10 WOB 2 FCH 3
The goals
Wolfsburg’s chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45+1' | Adrian Beck (Heidenheim) | 0–1 | +30% Heidenheim |
| 2. 80' | Moritz Jenz (Wolfsburg) | 1–1 | +43% Wolfsburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
- Werder 3–3 Frankfurt Jan 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Köln 2–1 Mainz Jan 17, 2026 · replay 51% for Köln
- Dortmund 3–2 St. Pauli Jan 17, 2026 · replay 89% for Dortmund
- HSV 0–0 Gladbach Jan 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Leverkusen Jan 17, 2026 · replay 54% for Hoffenheim
- Leipzig 1–5 Bayern Jan 17, 2026 · replay 69% for Bayern
- Stuttgart 1–1 Union Berlin Jan 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Augsburg 2–2 Freiburg Jan 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws