luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 19 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 23, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

St. Pauli 0–0 HSV: lucky or expected?

St. Pauli and HSV drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, St. Pauli win 3 of 10, HSV 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, St. Pauli were expected to score 1.0 here and HSV 1.1.

Full time

Goals
FC St. Pauli 0
Hamburger SV 0

January 23, 2026

Luck index +4 St. Pauli about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. St. Pauli win 3, 3 end level, HSV win 4.

  1. 1 STP 1 HSV 0
  2. 2 STP 2 HSV 1
  3. 3 STP 3 HSV 1
  4. 4 STP 1 HSV 1
  5. 5 STP 1 HSV 1
  6. 6 STP 0 HSV 0
  7. 7 STP 0 HSV 3
  8. 8 STP 0 HSV 2
  9. 9 STP 0 HSV 1
  10. 10 STP 1 HSV 2

The goals

No goals: St. Pauli and HSV drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (46% for St. Pauli, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 19 matches, 2025-26 · St. Pauli · HSV

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