Matchday 19 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Heidenheim 0–3 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat Heidenheim 3–0, and the goals lean Leipzig’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Heidenheim, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Heidenheim were expected to score 1.3 here and Leipzig 2.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 1. FC Heidenheim | 0 |
 RB Leipzig | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +33 Leipzig lucky · −33 Heidenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Heidenheim win 2, 2 end level, Leipzig win 6.
- 1 FCH 2 RBL 1
- 2 FCH 3 RBL 1
- 3 FCH 1 RBL 1
- 4 FCH 2 RBL 2
- 5 FCH 0 RBL 4
- 6 FCH 0 RBL 3
- 7 FCH 1 RBL 3
- 8 FCH 1 RBL 3
- 9 FCH 2 RBL 3
- 10 FCH 1 RBL 2
The goals
Heidenheim’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 62' | Ridle Baku (Leipzig) | 0–1 | +35% Leipzig |
| 2. 68' | Antonio Nusa (Leipzig) | 0–2 | +13% Leipzig |
| 3. 70' | David Raum (Leipzig) | 0–3 | +2% Leipzig |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
- St. Pauli 0–0 HSV Jan 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Frankfurt 1–3 Hoffenheim Jan 24, 2026 · replay 54% for Hoffenheim
- Bayern 1–2 Augsburg Jan 24, 2026 · replay 14% for Augsburg
- Leverkusen 1–0 Werder Jan 24, 2026 · replay 76% for Leverkusen
- Mainz 3–1 Wolfsburg Jan 24, 2026 · replay 63% for Mainz
- Union Berlin 0–3 Dortmund Jan 24, 2026 · replay 72% for Dortmund
- Gladbach 0–3 Stuttgart Jan 25, 2026 · replay 63% for Stuttgart
- Freiburg 2–1 Köln Jan 25, 2026 · replay 60% for Freiburg