Matchday 19 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bayern 1–2 Augsburg: lucky or expected?
Augsburg beat Bayern 2–1, a result the goals rarely give: Bayern win 8 of 10, Augsburg only 1, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bayern were expected to score 3.5 here and Augsburg 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayern Munich | 1 |
 FC Augsburg | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +86 Augsburg very lucky · −86 Bayern
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bayern win 8, 1 ends level, Augsburg win 1.
- 1 FCB 2 FCA 1
- 2 FCB 4 FCA 2
- 3 FCB 4 FCA 2
- 4 FCB 3 FCA 0
- 5 FCB 4 FCA 1
- 6 FCB 4 FCA 0
- 7 FCB 5 FCA 1
- 8 FCB 7 FCA 1
- 9 FCB 1 FCA 1
- 10 FCB 0 FCA 1
The goals
Bayern’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 23' | Hiroki Ito (Bayern) | 1–0 | +23% Bayern |
| 2. 75' | Arthur Chaves (Augsburg) | 1–1 | +39% Augsburg |
| 3. 81' | Han-Noa Massengo (Augsburg) | 1–2 | +44% Augsburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Augsburg win 14% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
- St. Pauli 0–0 HSV Jan 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Frankfurt 1–3 Hoffenheim Jan 24, 2026 · replay 54% for Hoffenheim
- Heidenheim 0–3 Leipzig Jan 24, 2026 · replay 67% for Leipzig
- Leverkusen 1–0 Werder Jan 24, 2026 · replay 76% for Leverkusen
- Mainz 3–1 Wolfsburg Jan 24, 2026 · replay 63% for Mainz
- Union Berlin 0–3 Dortmund Jan 24, 2026 · replay 72% for Dortmund
- Gladbach 0–3 Stuttgart Jan 25, 2026 · replay 63% for Stuttgart
- Freiburg 2–1 Köln Jan 25, 2026 · replay 60% for Freiburg