Matchday 20 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 31, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Hoffenheim 3–1 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?
Hoffenheim beat Union Berlin 3–1, and the goals lean Hoffenheim’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Union Berlin, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 2.1 here and Union Berlin 1.1. An own goal helped Hoffenheim.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 TSG Hoffenheim | 3 |
 Union Berlin | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +29 Hoffenheim lucky · −29 Union Berlin
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 6, 2 end level, Union Berlin win 2.
- 1 TSG 1 FCU 0
- 2 TSG 1 FCU 0
- 3 TSG 4 FCU 2
- 4 TSG 3 FCU 1
- 5 TSG 3 FCU 0
- 6 TSG 5 FCU 1
- 7 TSG 2 FCU 2
- 8 TSG 1 FCU 1
- 9 TSG 2 FCU 4
- 10 TSG 1 FCU 2
The goals
Hoffenheim’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 42' | Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim, penalty) | 1–0 | +27% Hoffenheim |
| 2. 45' | Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim) | 2–0 | +13% Hoffenheim |
| 3. 47' | Diogo Leite (Hoffenheim, own goal) | 3–0 | +4% Hoffenheim |
| 4. 68' | Rani Khedira (Union Berlin) | 3–1 | +2% Union Berlin |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Hoffenheim win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2025-26 · 
Hoffenheim · 
Union Berlin
More from matchday 20, 2025-26
- Köln 1–0 Wolfsburg Jan 30, 2026 · replay 58% for Köln
- Leipzig 1–2 Mainz Jan 31, 2026 · replay 33% for Mainz
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- Frankfurt 1–3 Leverkusen Jan 31, 2026 · replay 54% for Leverkusen
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- HSV 2–2 Bayern Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Stuttgart 1–0 Freiburg Feb 1, 2026 · replay 69% for Stuttgart
- Dortmund 3–2 Heidenheim Feb 1, 2026 · replay 85% for Dortmund