luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 20 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · February 1, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Dortmund 3–2 Heidenheim: lucky or expected?

Dortmund beat Heidenheim 3–2, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Dortmund win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Dortmund were expected to score 2.5 here and Heidenheim 0.6.

Full time

Goals
Borussia Dortmund 3
1. FC Heidenheim 2

February 1, 2026

Luck index +15 Dortmund about even · −15 Heidenheim

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Dortmund win 8, 2 end level, Heidenheim win 0.

  1. 1 BVB 2 FCH 1
  2. 2 BVB 1 FCH 0
  3. 3 BVB 2 FCH 0
  4. 4 BVB 2 FCH 0
  5. 5 BVB 4 FCH 1
  6. 6 BVB 3 FCH 0
  7. 7 BVB 4 FCH 0
  8. 8 BVB 5 FCH 0
  9. 9 BVB 0 FCH 0
  10. 10 BVB 1 FCH 1

The goals

Dortmund’s chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Dortmund was ahead in it, below while Heidenheim was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 44' Waldemar Anton (Dortmund) 1–0 +27% Dortmund
2. 45+5' Julian Niehues (Heidenheim) 1–1 +31% Heidenheim
3. 48' Julian Niehues (Heidenheim) 1–2 +28% Heidenheim
4. 68' Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund, penalty) 2–2 +37% Dortmund
5. 69' Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund) 3–2 +36% Dortmund

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Dortmund win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 20 matches, 2025-26 · Dortmund · Heidenheim

More from matchday 20, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 20, 2025-26