Matchday 20 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · January 31, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leipzig 1–2 Mainz: lucky or expected?
Mainz beat Leipzig 2–1, but the goals lean toward Leipzig: 6 wins in 10 to Mainz’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 1.9 here and Mainz 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 RB Leipzig | 1 |
 Mainz 05 | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +67 Mainz very lucky · −67 Leipzig
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leipzig win 6, 2 end level, Mainz win 2.
- 1 RBL 2 M05 1
- 2 RBL 2 M05 1
- 3 RBL 4 M05 2
- 4 RBL 3 M05 1
- 5 RBL 3 M05 0
- 6 RBL 4 M05 0
- 7 RBL 2 M05 2
- 8 RBL 1 M05 1
- 9 RBL 0 M05 2
- 10 RBL 1 M05 2
The goals
Leipzig’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 40' | Conrad Harder (Leipzig) | 1–0 | +26% Leipzig |
| 2. 45+6' | Nadiem Amiri (Mainz, penalty) | 1–1 | +31% Mainz |
| 3. 49' | Silas (Mainz) | 1–2 | +28% Mainz |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Mainz win 33% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2025-26
- Köln 1–0 Wolfsburg Jan 30, 2026 · replay 58% for Köln
- Werder 1–1 Gladbach Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Frankfurt 1–3 Leverkusen Jan 31, 2026 · replay 54% for Leverkusen
- Hoffenheim 3–1 Union Berlin Jan 31, 2026 · replay 71% for Hoffenheim
- Augsburg 2–1 St. Pauli Jan 31, 2026 · replay 66% for Augsburg
- HSV 2–2 Bayern Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 15% draws
- Stuttgart 1–0 Freiburg Feb 1, 2026 · replay 69% for Stuttgart
- Dortmund 3–2 Heidenheim Feb 1, 2026 · replay 85% for Dortmund