Matchday 28 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Gladbach 2–2 Heidenheim: lucky or expected?
Gladbach and Heidenheim drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Gladbach win 5 of 10, Heidenheim 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Gladbach were expected to score 1.8 here and Heidenheim 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 |
 1. FC Heidenheim | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −14 Gladbach about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Gladbach win 5, 3 end level, Heidenheim win 2.
- 1 BMG 1 FCH 0
- 2 BMG 2 FCH 1
- 3 BMG 3 FCH 1
- 4 BMG 2 FCH 0
- 5 BMG 3 FCH 0
- 6 BMG 3 FCH 3
- 7 BMG 1 FCH 1
- 8 BMG 2 FCH 2
- 9 BMG 0 FCH 2
- 10 BMG 1 FCH 2
The goals
Gladbach’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 16' | Wael Mohya (Gladbach) | 1–0 | +22% Gladbach |
| 2. 26' | Patrick Mainka (Heidenheim) | 1–1 | +24% Heidenheim |
| 3. 63' | Marnon Busch (Heidenheim) | 1–2 | +35% Heidenheim |
| 4. 74' | Franck Honorat (Gladbach) | 2–2 | +40% Gladbach |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Werder 1–2 Leipzig Apr 4, 2026 · replay 66% for Leipzig
- Leverkusen 6–3 Wolfsburg Apr 4, 2026 · replay 73% for Leverkusen
- HSV 1–1 Augsburg Apr 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Hoffenheim 1–2 Mainz Apr 4, 2026 · replay 32% for Mainz
- Freiburg 2–3 Bayern Apr 4, 2026 · replay 77% for Bayern
- Stuttgart 0–2 Dortmund Apr 4, 2026 · replay 52% for Dortmund
- Union Berlin 1–1 St. Pauli Apr 5, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Frankfurt 2–2 Köln Apr 5, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws