luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Matchday 28 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 4, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Stuttgart 0–2 Dortmund: lucky or expected?

Dortmund beat Stuttgart 2–0, but the goals call it even: Dortmund win 4 of 10, Stuttgart 4, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Stuttgart were expected to score 1.6 here and Dortmund 1.7.

Full time

Goals
VfB Stuttgart 0
Borussia Dortmund 2

April 4, 2026

Luck index +48 Dortmund lucky · −48 Stuttgart

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Stuttgart win 4, 2 end level, Dortmund win 4.

  1. 1 VFB 2 BVB 1
  2. 2 VFB 2 BVB 1
  3. 3 VFB 2 BVB 0
  4. 4 VFB 3 BVB 0
  5. 5 VFB 2 BVB 2
  6. 6 VFB 3 BVB 3
  7. 7 VFB 1 BVB 4
  8. 8 VFB 1 BVB 3
  9. 9 VFB 2 BVB 3
  10. 10 VFB 1 BVB 2

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+4' Karim Adeyemi (Dortmund) 0–1
90+6' Julian Brandt (Dortmund) 0–2

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Dortmund win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 28 matches, 2025-26 · Stuttgart · Dortmund

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