Matchday 28 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · April 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Hoffenheim 1–2 Mainz: lucky or expected?
Mainz beat Hoffenheim 2–1, but the goals lean toward Hoffenheim: 6 wins in 10 to Mainz’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Hoffenheim were expected to score 1.9 here and Mainz 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 TSG Hoffenheim | 1 |
 Mainz 05 | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +68 Mainz very lucky · −68 Hoffenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Hoffenheim win 6, 2 end level, Mainz win 2.
- 1 TSG 1 M05 0
- 2 TSG 1 M05 0
- 3 TSG 3 M05 2
- 4 TSG 2 M05 0
- 5 TSG 3 M05 0
- 6 TSG 4 M05 0
- 7 TSG 0 M05 0
- 8 TSG 2 M05 2
- 9 TSG 1 M05 3
- 10 TSG 0 M05 1
The goals
Hoffenheim’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 13' | Phillip Tietz (Mainz) | 0–1 | +24% Mainz |
| 2. 23' | Fisnik Asllani (Hoffenheim) | 1–1 | +25% Hoffenheim |
| 3. 79' | Phillip Tietz (Mainz) | 1–2 | +42% Mainz |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Mainz win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Werder 1–2 Leipzig Apr 4, 2026 · replay 66% for Leipzig
- Leverkusen 6–3 Wolfsburg Apr 4, 2026 · replay 73% for Leverkusen
- HSV 1–1 Augsburg Apr 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Gladbach 2–2 Heidenheim Apr 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Freiburg 2–3 Bayern Apr 4, 2026 · replay 77% for Bayern
- Stuttgart 0–2 Dortmund Apr 4, 2026 · replay 52% for Dortmund
- Union Berlin 1–1 St. Pauli Apr 5, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Frankfurt 2–2 Köln Apr 5, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws