Matchday 34 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 16, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bayern 5–1 Köln: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Köln 5–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bayern were expected to score 3.6 here and Köln 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Bayern Munich | 5 |
 1. FC Köln | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +14 Bayern about even · −14 Köln
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bayern win 8, 1 ends level, Köln win 1.
- 1 FCB 2 KOE 1
- 2 FCB 2 KOE 1
- 3 FCB 3 KOE 1
- 4 FCB 3 KOE 1
- 5 FCB 4 KOE 1
- 6 FCB 5 KOE 1
- 7 FCB 4 KOE 0
- 8 FCB 6 KOE 0
- 9 FCB 2 KOE 2
- 10 FCB 1 KOE 2
The goals
Bayern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 10' | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 1–0 | +21% Bayern |
| 2. 13' | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 2–0 | +13% Bayern |
| 3. 18' | Saïd El Mala (Köln) | 2–1 | +13% Köln |
| 4. 22' | Tom Bischof (Bayern) | 3–1 | +14% Bayern |
| 5. 69' | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 4–1 | +2% Bayern |
| 6. 83' | Nicolas Jackson (Bayern) | 5–1 | +0% Bayern |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2025-26
- Gladbach 4–0 Hoffenheim May 16, 2026 · replay 39% for Gladbach
- Freiburg 4–1 Leipzig May 16, 2026 · replay 44% for Freiburg
- Werder 0–2 Dortmund May 16, 2026 · replay 77% for Dortmund
- St. Pauli 1–3 Wolfsburg May 16, 2026 · replay 49% for Wolfsburg
- Leverkusen 1–1 HSV May 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Heidenheim 0–2 Mainz May 16, 2026 · replay 57% for Mainz
- Frankfurt 2–2 Stuttgart May 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Union Berlin 4–0 Augsburg May 16, 2026 · replay 54% for Union Berlin