Matchday 34 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 16, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Gladbach 4–0 Hoffenheim: lucky or expected?
Gladbach beat Hoffenheim 4–0, but the goals lean toward Hoffenheim: 4 wins in 10 to Gladbach’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Gladbach were expected to score 1.2 here and Hoffenheim 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 |
 TSG Hoffenheim | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +61 Gladbach very lucky · −61 Hoffenheim
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Gladbach win 3, 3 end level, Hoffenheim win 4.
- 1 BMG 2 TSG 1
- 2 BMG 2 TSG 1
- 3 BMG 2 TSG 0
- 4 BMG 1 TSG 1
- 5 BMG 0 TSG 0
- 6 BMG 2 TSG 2
- 7 BMG 2 TSG 5
- 8 BMG 0 TSG 2
- 9 BMG 0 TSG 1
- 10 BMG 1 TSG 2
The goals
Gladbach’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Hugo Bolin (Gladbach) | 1–0 | +22% Gladbach |
| 2. 23' | Haris Tabakovic (Gladbach) | 2–0 | +14% Gladbach |
| 3. 81' | Kevin Diks (Gladbach) | 3–0 | +0% Gladbach |
| 90+1' | Robin Hack (Gladbach) | 4–0 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Gladbach win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2025-26
- Freiburg 4–1 Leipzig May 16, 2026 · replay 44% for Freiburg
- Werder 0–2 Dortmund May 16, 2026 · replay 77% for Dortmund
- St. Pauli 1–3 Wolfsburg May 16, 2026 · replay 49% for Wolfsburg
- Leverkusen 1–1 HSV May 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Heidenheim 0–2 Mainz May 16, 2026 · replay 57% for Mainz
- Frankfurt 2–2 Stuttgart May 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Bayern 5–1 Köln May 16, 2026 · replay 86% for Bayern
- Union Berlin 4–0 Augsburg May 16, 2026 · replay 54% for Union Berlin