Matchday 34 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 16, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Freiburg 4–1 Leipzig: lucky or expected?
Freiburg beat Leipzig 4–1, but the goals lean toward Leipzig: 5 wins in 10 to Freiburg’s 3, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Freiburg were expected to score 1.5 here and Leipzig 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 SC Freiburg | 4 |
 RB Leipzig | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +56 Freiburg lucky · −56 Leipzig
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Freiburg win 3, 2 end level, Leipzig win 5.
- 1 SCF 1 RBL 0
- 2 SCF 1 RBL 0
- 3 SCF 3 RBL 1
- 4 SCF 1 RBL 1
- 5 SCF 1 RBL 1
- 6 SCF 0 RBL 3
- 7 SCF 0 RBL 2
- 8 SCF 2 RBL 4
- 9 SCF 1 RBL 2
- 10 SCF 1 RBL 2
The goals
Freiburg’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 24' | Niklas Beste (Freiburg) | 1–0 | +23% Freiburg |
| 2. 26' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 2–0 | +14% Freiburg |
| 3. 33' | Assan Ouedraogo (Leipzig) | 2–1 | +13% Leipzig |
| 4. 47' | Matthias Ginter (Freiburg) | 3–1 | +13% Freiburg |
| 5. 75' | Derry Scherhant (Freiburg) | 4–1 | +1% Freiburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Freiburg win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2025-26
- Gladbach 4–0 Hoffenheim May 16, 2026 · replay 39% for Gladbach
- Werder 0–2 Dortmund May 16, 2026 · replay 77% for Dortmund
- St. Pauli 1–3 Wolfsburg May 16, 2026 · replay 49% for Wolfsburg
- Leverkusen 1–1 HSV May 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Heidenheim 0–2 Mainz May 16, 2026 · replay 57% for Mainz
- Frankfurt 2–2 Stuttgart May 16, 2026 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Bayern 5–1 Köln May 16, 2026 · replay 86% for Bayern
- Union Berlin 4–0 Augsburg May 16, 2026 · replay 54% for Union Berlin