Quarter-finals · Euro 2020 · July 2, 2021

Belgium 1–2 Italy: who deserved to win?

Italy beat Belgium 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Italy go through 5 times in 10. Belgium made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.1.

Full time

Team	Goals	xG
Belgium	1	1.80
Italy	2	1.14

July 2, 2021 · Allianz Arena · Referee: Slavko Vinčić

Replay with same day's form: who goes through

Luck index +55 Italy lucky · −55 Belgium

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Belgium win 4, 2 end level, Italy win 4.

1 BEL 1 ITA 0
2 BEL 2 ITA 1
3 BEL 2 ITA 0
4 BEL 4 ITA 1
5 BEL 1 ITA 1
6 BEL 0 ITA 0
7 BEL 0 ITA 3
8 BEL 1 ITA 3
9 BEL 1 ITA 2
10 BEL 0 ITA 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Belgium win 41%, 24% end level, Italy win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Italy by 1.

Actual: Italy by 1 54321Draw12345 ← Belgium win by Italy win by →

Show as a table

After 90 minutes in the replays	Share of replays
Belgium by 3+	7.9%
Belgium by 2	12.8%
Belgium by 1	20.1%
Draw	24.2%
Italy by 1	20.0%
Italy by 2	9.4%
Italy by 3+	5.6%

Where the luck was

Finishing	Shots	Goals	Expected goals	Above expected
Belgium	10 (1 pen)	1	1.80	−0.80
Italy	14	2	1.14	+0.86

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

Minute	Chance	xG
12'	Giovanni Di Lorenzo didn’t score from a shot	0.30
30'	Nicolò Barella scored from a shot	0.14
43'	Lorenzo Insigne scored from a shot	0.05
46'	Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a penalty	0.78
60'	Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shot	0.57

When it happened

Belgium’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Belgium 50% Italy 1st half2nd half 12345678

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Belgium was ahead in it, below while Italy was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for
1	12'	Giovanni Di Lorenzo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance	+8% BEL
2	21'	Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance	+3% ITA
3	30'	Nicolò Barella scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance	+24% ITA
4	43'	Lorenzo Insigne scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance	+14% ITA
5	46'	Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance	+3% BEL
6	60'	Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 57% chance	+20% ITA
7	75'	Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance	+3% ITA
8	83'	Jeremy Doku didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance	+3% ITA

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Italy go through in 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2020 · Belgium · Italy