luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Quarter-finals · Euro 2020 · July 3, 2021

Czech Republic 1–2 Denmark: who deserved to win?

Denmark beat Czech Republic 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Denmark go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.2 expected goals to 1.2).

Full time

GoalsxG
Czech Republic 1 1.16
Denmark 2 1.21

July 3, 2021 · Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu · Referee: Björn Kuipers

Luck index +37 Denmark lucky · −37 Czech Republic

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Czech Republic win 2, 3 end level, Denmark win 5.

  1. 1 CZE 2 DEN 1
  2. 2 CZE 2 DEN 0
  3. 3 CZE 1 DEN 1
  4. 4 CZE 2 DEN 2
  5. 5 CZE 2 DEN 2
  6. 6 CZE 0 DEN 3
  7. 7 CZE 2 DEN 4
  8. 8 CZE 0 DEN 2
  9. 9 CZE 1 DEN 2
  10. 10 CZE 0 DEN 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Czech Republic win 24%, 26% end level, Denmark win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Denmark by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Czech Republic by 3+2.5%
Czech Republic by 26.3%
Czech Republic by 115.6%
Draw26.1%
Denmark by 124.8%
Denmark by 214.6%
Denmark by 3+10.1%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Czech Republic1611.16−0.16
Denmark1121.21+0.79

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
4'Thomas Delaney scored from a shot0.06
41'Kasper Dolberg scored from a shot0.26
48'Patrik Schick scored from a shot0.10

When it happened

Czech Republic’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Czech Republic was ahead in it, below while Denmark was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 4' Thomas Delaney scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +22% DEN
2 18' Tomáš Souček didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +4% DEN
3 21' Tomáš Holeš didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +3% DEN
4 25' Tomáš Souček didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +3% DEN
5 34' Tomáš Holeš didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +4% DEN
6 41' Kasper Dolberg scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance +11% DEN
7 48' Patrik Schick scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +12% CZE
8 92' Michael Krmenčík didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +4% DEN

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Denmark go through in 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2020 · Czech Republic · Denmark

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