luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Quarter-finals · Euro 2020 · July 2, 2021 · pens

Switzerland 1–1 Spain: who deserved to win?

Spain went through on penalties after 1–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Spain go through 6 times in 10. Spain made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 0.8. An own goal helped Spain.

Full time · won on penalties

GoalsxG
Switzerland 1 0.82
Spain 1 3.01

July 2, 2021 · Saint-Petersburg Stadium ( Gazprom Arena ) · Referee: Michael Oliver

Luck index +36 Spain lucky · −36 Switzerland

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Switzerland win 2, 3 end level, Spain win 5.

  1. 1 SUI 1 ESP 0
  2. 2 SUI 2 ESP 0
  3. 3 SUI 2 ESP 2
  4. 4 SUI 1 ESP 1
  5. 5 SUI 1 ESP 1
  6. 6 SUI 1 ESP 4
  7. 7 SUI 0 ESP 2
  8. 8 SUI 0 ESP 1
  9. 9 SUI 0 ESP 1
  10. 10 SUI 0 ESP 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Switzerland win 22%, 30% end level, Spain win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Switzerland by 3+1.7%
Switzerland by 25.7%
Switzerland by 115.0%
Draw29.6%
Spain by 128.0%
Spain by 213.2%
Spain by 3+6.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Switzerland810.82+0.18
Spain2903.01−3.01

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
67'Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot0.34
76'Pau Francisco Torres didn’t score from a shot0.39
91'Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shot0.38

When it happened

Switzerland’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Switzerland was ahead in it, below while Spain was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 7' Own goal by nan, for SpainOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +23% ESP
2 67' Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance +25% SUI
3 76' Pau Francisco Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance +16% SUI
4 ET 91' Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance +14% SUI
5 ET 99' Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance +8% SUI
6 ET 100' Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance +9% SUI
7 Pens 120' Spain won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +50% ESP
8 ET 120' Rodrigo Hernández Cascante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance +12% SUI

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Spain go through in 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2020 · Switzerland · Spain

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