Matchday 1 · La Liga 2025-26 · August 15, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Girona 1–3 Rayo: lucky or expected?
Rayo beat Girona 3–1, but the goals call it even: Rayo win 3 of 10, Girona 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Girona were expected to score 1.1 here and Rayo 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Girona | 1 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +53 Rayo lucky · −53 Girona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Girona win 4, 3 end level, Rayo win 3.
- 1 GIR 2 RAY 1
- 2 GIR 2 RAY 1
- 3 GIR 2 RAY 0
- 4 GIR 3 RAY 0
- 5 GIR 0 RAY 0
- 6 GIR 1 RAY 1
- 7 GIR 1 RAY 1
- 8 GIR 0 RAY 2
- 9 GIR 1 RAY 2
- 10 GIR 1 RAY 2
The goals
Girona’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 18' | Jorge De Frutos (Rayo) | 0–1 | +27% Rayo |
| 2. 20' | Álvaro García (Rayo) | 0–2 | +19% Rayo |
| 3. 45' | Isi Palazón (Rayo, penalty) | 0–3 | +6% Rayo |
| 4. 57' | Joel Roca (Girona) | 1–3 | +4% Girona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Rayo win 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2025-26
- Villarreal 2–0 Oviedo Aug 15, 2025 · replay 85% for Villarreal
- Mallorca 0–3 Barcelona Aug 16, 2025 · replay 72% for Barcelona
- Alavés 2–1 Levante Aug 16, 2025 · replay 60% for Alavés
- Valencia 1–1 Real Sociedad Aug 16, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Celta 0–2 Getafe Aug 17, 2025 · replay 33% for Getafe
- Athletic 3–2 Sevilla Aug 17, 2025 · replay 60% for Athletic
- Espanyol 2–1 Atlético Aug 17, 2025 · replay 42% for Espanyol
- Elche 1–1 Betis Aug 18, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Madrid 1–0 Osasuna Aug 19, 2025 · replay 82% for Real Madrid