Matchday 17 · La Liga 2025-26 · December 22, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Athletic 1–2 Espanyol: lucky or expected?
Espanyol beat Athletic 2–1, but the goals lean toward Athletic: 4 wins in 10 to Espanyol’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Athletic were expected to score 1.5 here and Espanyol 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 1 |
 Espanyol | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +58 Espanyol lucky · −58 Athletic
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 4, 3 end level, Espanyol win 3.
- 1 ATH 1 ESP 0
- 2 ATH 1 ESP 0
- 3 ATH 2 ESP 0
- 4 ATH 5 ESP 2
- 5 ATH 2 ESP 2
- 6 ATH 1 ESP 1
- 7 ATH 1 ESP 1
- 8 ATH 1 ESP 3
- 9 ATH 1 ESP 2
- 10 ATH 0 ESP 1
The goals
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 38' | Alex Berenguer (Athletic) | 1–0 | +27% Athletic |
| 2. 44' | Carlos Romero (Espanyol) | 1–1 | +28% Espanyol |
| 3. 52' | Pere Milla (Espanyol) | 1–2 | +34% Espanyol |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Espanyol win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2025-26
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- Oviedo 0–0 Celta Dec 20, 2025 · drawn; replay 30% draws
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- Osasuna 3–0 Alavés Dec 20, 2025 · replay 63% for Osasuna
- Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla Dec 20, 2025 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Girona 0–3 Atlético Dec 21, 2025 · replay 58% for Atlético
- Villarreal 0–2 Barcelona Dec 21, 2025 · replay 58% for Barcelona
- Elche 4–0 Rayo Dec 21, 2025 · replay 55% for Elche
- Betis 4–0 Getafe Dec 21, 2025 · replay 70% for Betis